Posts tagged as:

System


Total -3.0R before commissions

Trade One: I took the DivWit because NQ had no pivots near it and looked strong and price bounced off of 5 mins 20 MA. Stopped.

Trade Two: DivW with downward thrust  retracement after news. Stopped.

Trade Three: DivA against ES Pivot. Needed a large trade profile due to close below low of consolidation. Decided to max my risk at 2 pts, which was way over .5R notional risk. Stopped.

Sideways morning session so decided to stop. Price was sandwiched between NQ and ES PP.

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Total 0.38R before commissions

A perfect session. No rules broken. Phew… In my pre-market research I noted the overnight down trend on the 5 minute chart. I chose to take a signal against this trend because there was divergence at a cluster of three resistance levels. I listened to my internal guidance and stopped after the third trade. Trades Four and Five would, at best, have been break-even or maybe small losers…

One small point. Could have been in Trade Three two ticks lower if I had been quicker to market into the trade.

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What a day. Didn’t notice the short signal for Trade 1, Didn’t take Trade 2, a perfect long with NQ at PP as well. Took Trade 3 perfectly and stopped myself out early on Trade 4. What a catalogue of errors.

To put this right I need to:

1 – Keep focused and attentive for the full 90 minutes

2 – Follow my rules and only market out at a well defined signal point

Moving total risk to 2 pts from second entry will help. I have calculated two trade sheets.

This is how I traded – All the solid lines:

This is how I could have traded the system – All the dashed and solid lines:

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Total -2.46R before commissions

OK so today I missed a reversal trade and didn’t take the fourth trade. My psychology is definitely a little worn from last week. Weekly pivots can be strong resistance and I will watch for how price moves at these points. I let a profitable trade go right against me after it had bounced off of Weekly R1. I didn’t break my rules here so pat on back just trying to work out if there is a way of mitigating the risk. My maximum adverse excursion data tells me that 2nd position trades do not go against the trade, on average, by more than .4R so the first contract risk could be brought to break even without much impact to the win rate and expectancy. This is a tweak mid month and is pretty much against my rules… I’m gonna meet the stats in the middle and move my initial position stop to the 2nd position 2 pt stop placement. This may be break-even it may be up to 4 ticks risk. I believe this will help my psychology, less risk on the table at any given moment, and my psychology is very important as tomorrow will show…

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Decided to review trades and keep away from action today. This will now be my regime each rollover period – Two Day review period.

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